Friday, October 29, 2010
Monday, October 11, 2010
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Evaluating ASEAN progress
By Malminderjit Singh
As the ASEAN countries gather for their annual summit this week in Vietnam, the regional grouping will once again come under the watchful eyes of the international community. The main thrust of the meetings will be to inch closer towards realizing the ASEAN Community with the economic pillar coming under frequent criticism for the apparent lack of progress in economic integration.
The ASEAN Economic Community, which is due to be fully implemented by 2015 in accordance with the ASEAN Economic Blueprint, has a clearly defined set of measures that member countries must implement in order to achieve integration. However, critics have attacked the process as lacking tangible progress and substantial liberalization measures. A majority of the criticism stems from comparisons made with the European Union example of economic integration. Some of this criticism is valid as the ASEAN process does have areas it could improve on. However, to evaluate its perceived success from a European perspective does little justification and requires a re-think.
Firstly, it must be pointed out that ASEAN economic integration looks to move in the direction of the EU and not become another EU. There is difference in this articulation as the latter implies a direct replication while the former, explains that there would be adaptation of EU measures in the ASEAN context, reflective of the current ASEAN approach. Hence,this distinction is necessary as it already weakens the case for a direct comparison between both groupings.
In addition, the European Community, is the product of amalgamation of the European Coal and Steel Community, the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community to increase cooperation among member countries, particularly France and Germany, which had fought wars with one another and is thus built upon supranationalism to achieve these objectives. ASEAN, on the other hand, was formed as a solution to maintain territorial integrity and sovereignty and is therefore based upon a system of non-interference and international consensus among member countries. This makes economic integration a little more challenging within ASEAN as non-interference in domestic policies makes coordination among member countries even more important.
If the EU is not an appropriate benchmark, then how should ASEAN economic integration be evaluated? The ASEAN already has developed an ASEAN Scorecard which is designed to be a tracking mechanism for member countries to monitor the overall and individual country progress of measures implemented. Progress on most of these measures have been on track, but there are areas where more could be done. The main areas where more emphasis needs to be accorded include improving connectivity, through more enhanced and efficient transport links, establishing whole-of-government approaches within each ASEAN country so that there is greater domestic policy coordination and a more policy coordination among member countries as well as with dialogue partners.
As the ASEAN countries gather for their annual summit this week in Vietnam, the regional grouping will once again come under the watchful eyes of the international community. The main thrust of the meetings will be to inch closer towards realizing the ASEAN Community with the economic pillar coming under frequent criticism for the apparent lack of progress in economic integration.
The ASEAN Economic Community, which is due to be fully implemented by 2015 in accordance with the ASEAN Economic Blueprint, has a clearly defined set of measures that member countries must implement in order to achieve integration. However, critics have attacked the process as lacking tangible progress and substantial liberalization measures. A majority of the criticism stems from comparisons made with the European Union example of economic integration. Some of this criticism is valid as the ASEAN process does have areas it could improve on. However, to evaluate its perceived success from a European perspective does little justification and requires a re-think.
Firstly, it must be pointed out that ASEAN economic integration looks to move in the direction of the EU and not become another EU. There is difference in this articulation as the latter implies a direct replication while the former, explains that there would be adaptation of EU measures in the ASEAN context, reflective of the current ASEAN approach. Hence,this distinction is necessary as it already weakens the case for a direct comparison between both groupings.
In addition, the European Community, is the product of amalgamation of the European Coal and Steel Community, the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community to increase cooperation among member countries, particularly France and Germany, which had fought wars with one another and is thus built upon supranationalism to achieve these objectives. ASEAN, on the other hand, was formed as a solution to maintain territorial integrity and sovereignty and is therefore based upon a system of non-interference and international consensus among member countries. This makes economic integration a little more challenging within ASEAN as non-interference in domestic policies makes coordination among member countries even more important.
If the EU is not an appropriate benchmark, then how should ASEAN economic integration be evaluated? The ASEAN already has developed an ASEAN Scorecard which is designed to be a tracking mechanism for member countries to monitor the overall and individual country progress of measures implemented. Progress on most of these measures have been on track, but there are areas where more could be done. The main areas where more emphasis needs to be accorded include improving connectivity, through more enhanced and efficient transport links, establishing whole-of-government approaches within each ASEAN country so that there is greater domestic policy coordination and a more policy coordination among member countries as well as with dialogue partners.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Buoyed by growth, India to cut deficit
Indirect taxes to contribute much of revenue increase in Budget 2010
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
INDIA’S economy has weathered the global recession well and may grow at a 10 per cent pace in the “not-too-distant future”, but the country also needs to review public spending and improve its fiscal position.
This message was delivered by Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee during his Budget speech in Parliament yesterday. India’s Budget 2010 places greater emphasis on achieving higher growth instead of curbing inflation, and works towards fiscal consolidation.
In his statement, Mr Mukherjee said that India is on track to grow 7.2 per cent in the fiscal year ending next month. He expects Asia’s third-largest economy to grow 8.5 per cent next fiscal year, before hitting 9 per cent growth in 2011-12.
“The economy is in a better position than a year ago. We have to quickly revert to a higher GDP growth path of 9 per cent and cross double-digit growth,” he said.
The fiscal deficit (a reflection of government borrowings) is estimated to touch 6.8 per cent in 2009-10, but Mr Mukherjee expects it to shrink to 5.5 per cent of GDP for the coming fiscal year, before falling to 4.1 per cent of GDP by 2013. However, Indian bond yields reached a one-week high of 7.89 per cent yesterday as the finance minister announced that the government plans to increase market borrowing by 1.3 per cent in his US$239 billion Budget.
Nevertheless, analysts lauded the government’s efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation. PK Basu, managing director and chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore, told BT Weekend that the Budget included credible steps to boost revenue and said that this may lead to an even lower fiscal deficit than projected.
Much of the revenue increase comes from a greater focus on indirect taxes, including plans to raise across-the-board excise duty in non-oil goods from 8 to 10 per cent and hike the Minimum Alternative Tax (MAT) on corporate profit from 15 per cent to 18 per cent.
Besides this, the Budget also restored the 5 per cent duty on crude oil and 7.5 per cent duty on gasoline and diesel, which sparked off a noisy walkout by opposition party members from the proceedings in Parliament. Fearing a political backlash, a decision on the Kirit Parikh committee recommendations – which include price deregulation of petrol and diesel, and a steep decrease in the subsidy of cooking gas and kerosene – was postponed to a later date.
Politically correct
According to Amitendu Palit, visiting research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, this was a “politically correct” decision, as was the announcement to restructure personal income tax by increasing the upper limit, of those who pay only 10 and 20 per cent income tax, to stimulate greater spending.
“By widening the tax slabs, the government has increased the disposable income of the middle class and therefore created a feel-good factor,” explained Dr Palit.
Mr Mukherjee also announced that the government would sell its stake in 60 state firms and would expect to raise US$8.6 billion by doing so.
The Budget also included plans to offer more licences for opening new banks, and this news propelled the shares of Indian banks as the Sensex rose more than 350 points. The State Bank of India climbed 3.2 per cent while rivals ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank rose 2.4 per cent and one per cent respectively.
While many expected the Budget to introduce measures to arrest the concerns of rising inflation, Dr Palit told BT that the Budget’s direct intervention scope was limited as much of the inflation is due to supply-side problems. “The measures to strengthen food supply and management have been planned effectively to curb rising food prices, but this needs to be maintained over a period of time,” he cautioned.
Dr Palit said the Budget could have taken a harder line on some aspects. “The measures on disciplining expenditure have not been implemented to the extent expected, and in terms of taxation the government should have introduced the Goods and Services Tax this time. However, there were measures to boost foreign investment, such as a simplified method of calculating the foreign equity component of companies, and the proposal to establish a Coal Regulatory Authority, which should encourage more entrepreneurs in the coal sector,” he pointed out.
Mr Mukherjee announced the govt would sell its stake in 60 state firms and expects to raise US$8.6b by doing so.
Indirect taxes to contribute much of revenue increase in Budget 2010
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
INDIA’S economy has weathered the global recession well and may grow at a 10 per cent pace in the “not-too-distant future”, but the country also needs to review public spending and improve its fiscal position.
This message was delivered by Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee during his Budget speech in Parliament yesterday. India’s Budget 2010 places greater emphasis on achieving higher growth instead of curbing inflation, and works towards fiscal consolidation.
In his statement, Mr Mukherjee said that India is on track to grow 7.2 per cent in the fiscal year ending next month. He expects Asia’s third-largest economy to grow 8.5 per cent next fiscal year, before hitting 9 per cent growth in 2011-12.
“The economy is in a better position than a year ago. We have to quickly revert to a higher GDP growth path of 9 per cent and cross double-digit growth,” he said.
The fiscal deficit (a reflection of government borrowings) is estimated to touch 6.8 per cent in 2009-10, but Mr Mukherjee expects it to shrink to 5.5 per cent of GDP for the coming fiscal year, before falling to 4.1 per cent of GDP by 2013. However, Indian bond yields reached a one-week high of 7.89 per cent yesterday as the finance minister announced that the government plans to increase market borrowing by 1.3 per cent in his US$239 billion Budget.
Nevertheless, analysts lauded the government’s efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation. PK Basu, managing director and chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore, told BT Weekend that the Budget included credible steps to boost revenue and said that this may lead to an even lower fiscal deficit than projected.
Much of the revenue increase comes from a greater focus on indirect taxes, including plans to raise across-the-board excise duty in non-oil goods from 8 to 10 per cent and hike the Minimum Alternative Tax (MAT) on corporate profit from 15 per cent to 18 per cent.
Besides this, the Budget also restored the 5 per cent duty on crude oil and 7.5 per cent duty on gasoline and diesel, which sparked off a noisy walkout by opposition party members from the proceedings in Parliament. Fearing a political backlash, a decision on the Kirit Parikh committee recommendations – which include price deregulation of petrol and diesel, and a steep decrease in the subsidy of cooking gas and kerosene – was postponed to a later date.
Politically correct
According to Amitendu Palit, visiting research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, this was a “politically correct” decision, as was the announcement to restructure personal income tax by increasing the upper limit, of those who pay only 10 and 20 per cent income tax, to stimulate greater spending.
“By widening the tax slabs, the government has increased the disposable income of the middle class and therefore created a feel-good factor,” explained Dr Palit.
Mr Mukherjee also announced that the government would sell its stake in 60 state firms and would expect to raise US$8.6 billion by doing so.
The Budget also included plans to offer more licences for opening new banks, and this news propelled the shares of Indian banks as the Sensex rose more than 350 points. The State Bank of India climbed 3.2 per cent while rivals ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank rose 2.4 per cent and one per cent respectively.
While many expected the Budget to introduce measures to arrest the concerns of rising inflation, Dr Palit told BT that the Budget’s direct intervention scope was limited as much of the inflation is due to supply-side problems. “The measures to strengthen food supply and management have been planned effectively to curb rising food prices, but this needs to be maintained over a period of time,” he cautioned.
Dr Palit said the Budget could have taken a harder line on some aspects. “The measures on disciplining expenditure have not been implemented to the extent expected, and in terms of taxation the government should have introduced the Goods and Services Tax this time. However, there were measures to boost foreign investment, such as a simplified method of calculating the foreign equity component of companies, and the proposal to establish a Coal Regulatory Authority, which should encourage more entrepreneurs in the coal sector,” he pointed out.
Mr Mukherjee announced the govt would sell its stake in 60 state firms and expects to raise US$8.6b by doing so.
New opportunities for S’pore businesses in India
Sectors cited include food processing, education and urban solutions
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
“SINGAPORE’S FDI inflows into India should get higher priority,” said Indian High Commissioner to Singapore T C A Raghavan in his address at a seminar on the Indian budget here yesterday.
Dr Raghavan’s comment was echoed throughout the seminar as speakers highlighted how measures introduced in the Indian budget, announced on Friday, open up opportunities for Singapore companies to invest in India.
These measures include significant changes to the investment framework such as simplifying the foreign direct investment (FDI) regime, clearly defining the methodology for calculating indirect foreign investment in Indian companies, and the complete liberalisation of pricing and payment of technology transfer fee and trademark, brand name and royalty payments.
One of the speakers, Indraneel Choudhary, who is an executive director at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) India, said: “In terms of the relaxation on the royalty and technical services, there are now no more caps for incomes earned by Singapore companies who have invested in or have technology or intellectual property in Singapore that they have now passed on to Indian companies and so this is a major move by the government to stimulate greater technology-based FDI, including from Singapore.”
Besides this, the Indian government also announced plans to sell its stakes in 60 state-owned firms to raise around US$8.6 billion.
The budget also included more licences being offered to private sector players in banking and allowing greater private sector investment in the retail and storage of agricultural products.
According to speakers at the seminar, all of these measures will help to create more opportunities for overseas companies, including those based in Singapore.
“More Singapore companies can get involved in food storage and processing and I also see increasing opportunities for local businesses in sectors such as education and urban solutions,” said Vijay Iyengar, chairman of the Singapore Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SICCI).
Amitendu Palit, visiting research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, pointed out that long-term sentiment for foreign investment growth into India is buoyant and this would help attract Singapore companies there.
“There has been positive growth in foreign direct investment and indirect investment into India in the first nine months of this financial year and this shows that investors around the world still find the Indian market very attractive. There are reasons and opportunities for Singapore companies to also do the same,” said Dr Palit.
Pramod Bhatia, executive director with PwC India, noted that Mauritius is the largest source of foreign direct investment into India at present, accounting for as much as 44 per cent of India’s total FDI inflows, while Singapore, which is ranked second, accounts for only 9 per cent. He attributed the distortion to more FDI flows coming via Mauritius.
Dr Palit added: “The Singapore-India trade story is more than the statistics show, especially since there is a lack of data in trade in services. Therefore, I would like to think that the economic relationship between both countries also needs to be evaluated qualitatively.”
The seminar was jointly organised by the SICCI, the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and PwC.
Sectors cited include food processing, education and urban solutions
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
“SINGAPORE’S FDI inflows into India should get higher priority,” said Indian High Commissioner to Singapore T C A Raghavan in his address at a seminar on the Indian budget here yesterday.
Dr Raghavan’s comment was echoed throughout the seminar as speakers highlighted how measures introduced in the Indian budget, announced on Friday, open up opportunities for Singapore companies to invest in India.
These measures include significant changes to the investment framework such as simplifying the foreign direct investment (FDI) regime, clearly defining the methodology for calculating indirect foreign investment in Indian companies, and the complete liberalisation of pricing and payment of technology transfer fee and trademark, brand name and royalty payments.
One of the speakers, Indraneel Choudhary, who is an executive director at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) India, said: “In terms of the relaxation on the royalty and technical services, there are now no more caps for incomes earned by Singapore companies who have invested in or have technology or intellectual property in Singapore that they have now passed on to Indian companies and so this is a major move by the government to stimulate greater technology-based FDI, including from Singapore.”
Besides this, the Indian government also announced plans to sell its stakes in 60 state-owned firms to raise around US$8.6 billion.
The budget also included more licences being offered to private sector players in banking and allowing greater private sector investment in the retail and storage of agricultural products.
According to speakers at the seminar, all of these measures will help to create more opportunities for overseas companies, including those based in Singapore.
“More Singapore companies can get involved in food storage and processing and I also see increasing opportunities for local businesses in sectors such as education and urban solutions,” said Vijay Iyengar, chairman of the Singapore Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SICCI).
Amitendu Palit, visiting research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, pointed out that long-term sentiment for foreign investment growth into India is buoyant and this would help attract Singapore companies there.
“There has been positive growth in foreign direct investment and indirect investment into India in the first nine months of this financial year and this shows that investors around the world still find the Indian market very attractive. There are reasons and opportunities for Singapore companies to also do the same,” said Dr Palit.
Pramod Bhatia, executive director with PwC India, noted that Mauritius is the largest source of foreign direct investment into India at present, accounting for as much as 44 per cent of India’s total FDI inflows, while Singapore, which is ranked second, accounts for only 9 per cent. He attributed the distortion to more FDI flows coming via Mauritius.
Dr Palit added: “The Singapore-India trade story is more than the statistics show, especially since there is a lack of data in trade in services. Therefore, I would like to think that the economic relationship between both countries also needs to be evaluated qualitatively.”
The seminar was jointly organised by the SICCI, the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and PwC.
China eyes 8% growth; vows to fight inflation
China eyes 8% growth; vows to fight inflation
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
In an annual report on the opening day of Chinese parliament yesterday, Premier Wen Jiabao announced an economic growth target of 8 per cent during a crucial year of recovery. In his televised “state of the nation” address, Mr Wen also reassured the legislature that the government’s other priorities for the year will be to combat inflation and risks in the banking sector so as to keep growth on track.
Contrary to his intent to curb rising prices, however, Mr Wen noted that China would still stick to loose monetary and fiscal policies since global growth remains weak. “This year the main targets we have set for economic and social development are increasing GDP by approximately 8 per cent . . . (and) holding the rise in consumer prices to around 3 per cent,” reported AFP.
Speaking to The Business Times on this contradiction, Liu Yunhua, from the Nanyang Technological University, explained: “Due to the complication of the Chinese economy, some sectors need to be expanded, and so credit should be more available to them, while other sectors such as the housing market need to be cooled as they are over-heated. So for these, the credit has to be tightened.”
Accordingly, the government would cut its increase in spending, by more than half, to 11.4 per cent, to address the ill-effects of the stimulus package implemented during the global crisis.
Despite this, there was higher government spending announced in education, health care, low-income housing and social security. In addition, the Associate Press reported that the increases were higher than that given to the military, which is projected to receive a 7.5 per cent budget boost, its lowest in two decades.
This shift in focus signals an intention by the government to achieve more inclusive growth and address the widening rich-poor divide.
“China needs to spend more money on education and housing. China’s budget on education is lower than the world average and therefore it is normal to spend more in this sector. For housing, increasing the supply of public housing will help cool the sector down and complement the tightening of credit here.
“Expenditure in these areas addresses the growing concern of social inequality, which affects the stability of the Chinese society and is an urgent issue that needs to be attended to,” said Assoc Prof Liu.
On the yuan, Mr Wen said that China would keep its value “basically stable” in 2010.
Zhao Hong, a visiting senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute in Singapore, defended this policy as he explained that a lower and stable yuan will be good for economic development as fluctuations will result in a loss of confidence.
Dr Zhao added that while an appreciation of the yuan will increase imports from the West, such a move will affect Chinese export firms and may result in job losses.
This latest announcement by Mr Wen on the yuan is another snub to China’s Western trading partners that have raised concerns about the currency being undervalued. Nevertheless, the main Chinese index responded well to Mr Wen’s address and the strong signal sent by the government on economic growth.
The Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3,031.065 points yesterday, up 0.25 per cent, after falling 2.4 per cent on Thursday in its biggest one-day fall in five weeks, according to Reuters.
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
In an annual report on the opening day of Chinese parliament yesterday, Premier Wen Jiabao announced an economic growth target of 8 per cent during a crucial year of recovery. In his televised “state of the nation” address, Mr Wen also reassured the legislature that the government’s other priorities for the year will be to combat inflation and risks in the banking sector so as to keep growth on track.
Contrary to his intent to curb rising prices, however, Mr Wen noted that China would still stick to loose monetary and fiscal policies since global growth remains weak. “This year the main targets we have set for economic and social development are increasing GDP by approximately 8 per cent . . . (and) holding the rise in consumer prices to around 3 per cent,” reported AFP.
Speaking to The Business Times on this contradiction, Liu Yunhua, from the Nanyang Technological University, explained: “Due to the complication of the Chinese economy, some sectors need to be expanded, and so credit should be more available to them, while other sectors such as the housing market need to be cooled as they are over-heated. So for these, the credit has to be tightened.”
Accordingly, the government would cut its increase in spending, by more than half, to 11.4 per cent, to address the ill-effects of the stimulus package implemented during the global crisis.
Despite this, there was higher government spending announced in education, health care, low-income housing and social security. In addition, the Associate Press reported that the increases were higher than that given to the military, which is projected to receive a 7.5 per cent budget boost, its lowest in two decades.
This shift in focus signals an intention by the government to achieve more inclusive growth and address the widening rich-poor divide.
“China needs to spend more money on education and housing. China’s budget on education is lower than the world average and therefore it is normal to spend more in this sector. For housing, increasing the supply of public housing will help cool the sector down and complement the tightening of credit here.
“Expenditure in these areas addresses the growing concern of social inequality, which affects the stability of the Chinese society and is an urgent issue that needs to be attended to,” said Assoc Prof Liu.
On the yuan, Mr Wen said that China would keep its value “basically stable” in 2010.
Zhao Hong, a visiting senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute in Singapore, defended this policy as he explained that a lower and stable yuan will be good for economic development as fluctuations will result in a loss of confidence.
Dr Zhao added that while an appreciation of the yuan will increase imports from the West, such a move will affect Chinese export firms and may result in job losses.
This latest announcement by Mr Wen on the yuan is another snub to China’s Western trading partners that have raised concerns about the currency being undervalued. Nevertheless, the main Chinese index responded well to Mr Wen’s address and the strong signal sent by the government on economic growth.
The Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3,031.065 points yesterday, up 0.25 per cent, after falling 2.4 per cent on Thursday in its biggest one-day fall in five weeks, according to Reuters.
Foreign worker levy hike: short pain, long gain
Foreign worker levy hike: short pain, long gain
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
The increase serves as a good starting point for policy that can later be fine tuned
AS Members of Parliament (MPs) spent last week discussing Budget 2010 in Parliament, one topic stood out: the increase in foreign worker levies. While there was merit in most of the arguments posed, one key issue was raised that took the discussion into uncharted territory, and that is the impact of the foreign levy hike on the wages of Singaporeans.
The policy aim of the levy increase is to create a more level playing field between foreign workers and Singaporeans so that competition for jobs will be based more on skills and qualifications, rather than on wage costs.
In the process, some small and medium enterprises (SMEs) may be faced with increased costs in the near future if they choose to retain their foreign workers. But employers who switch to hiring more Singaporeans may also face higher costs while waiting for productivity gains to kick in. However, in the longer term, both companies and the economy will adjust to the slower intake of foreign workers and will come out ahead.
There are some who argue that the presence of large numbers of foreign workers has had a negative impact on the wages of Singaporeans, particularly those from the lower income bracket, as an increase in supply of unskilled labour keeps wages low for this segment of workers.
Associate Professor Hui Weng Tat from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy points out that depressed wages in Singapore is a real problem, highlighted by the fact that we have schemes such as the Workfare Income Supplement (WIS).
“The levy increase controls the inflow of foreign workers into Singapore as it narrows the wage gap and raises the attractiveness of Singaporeans,” says Prof Hui.
Since the depression of wages is a more chronic problem for lower income Singaporeans compared to the rest of the population, this trend, if not addressed, could potentially worsen income inequality here.
Budget 2010 should be commended for recognising these problems and implementing the levy hike as a progressive measure to address them – while at the same time pushing for improved productivity to help lower costs for employers.
Speaking to BT, MP for Ang Mo Kio GRC, Inderjit Singh, offered an alternative: “The levy increase will address the problem of depressed wages, but if we are to lower the cost burden on SMEs, then we can administer a minimum wage,” he suggests. He adds that the minimum wage can be subsidised by the government, via the mechanism of the WIS.
“The real solution is to improve productivity so that each worker can command a higher wage,” he says. “But until we get there, a minimum wage may be needed. This will help arrest the issues of low wages and wage inequality with little or no burden on companies for now.”
Adding to calls for a more comprehensive approach towards addressing this problem, Associate Professor Shandre Thangavelu from the National University of Singapore explains that since Singapore is a small and open economy, it will be useful to have a derivative of a minimum wage, with a flexible component to address unemployment fluctuations during economic downturns.
However, he adds that to solve the problem of depressed wages and wage inequality, a minimum wage alone would be inadequate. There should also be improvements in innovation and technology to substitute unskilled workers with more semi-skilled and skilled workers, he says.
The foreign worker levy increase serves as a good starting point for policy that can later be fine tuned. For companies, the hike may appear unnecessary and untimely. But from a public policy perspective, it can be seen as a measure that creates some short-term pain to achieve longer term gain.
If it is able to achieve its ultimate purpose – higher incomes for Singaporeans – companies will stand to benefit from a larger consumption pie. They will also gain from the productivity measures when they kick in due to a more optimal use of the factors of production.
As Prof Thangavelu sums up, “There is no doubt a trade-off here between long-term and mid-term growth. There will be an adjustment cost, and therefore the budget has given incentives to cope with this cost. However, it is better to make these changes now that we have just come out of a recession, rather than later.”
In other words, although the levy increase can cause some pain in the short run for some companies, it is a positive step towards long-term competitiveness for the economy as a whole.
In the longer term, both companies and the economy will adjust to the slower intake of foreign workers and will come out ahead.
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
The increase serves as a good starting point for policy that can later be fine tuned
AS Members of Parliament (MPs) spent last week discussing Budget 2010 in Parliament, one topic stood out: the increase in foreign worker levies. While there was merit in most of the arguments posed, one key issue was raised that took the discussion into uncharted territory, and that is the impact of the foreign levy hike on the wages of Singaporeans.
The policy aim of the levy increase is to create a more level playing field between foreign workers and Singaporeans so that competition for jobs will be based more on skills and qualifications, rather than on wage costs.
In the process, some small and medium enterprises (SMEs) may be faced with increased costs in the near future if they choose to retain their foreign workers. But employers who switch to hiring more Singaporeans may also face higher costs while waiting for productivity gains to kick in. However, in the longer term, both companies and the economy will adjust to the slower intake of foreign workers and will come out ahead.
There are some who argue that the presence of large numbers of foreign workers has had a negative impact on the wages of Singaporeans, particularly those from the lower income bracket, as an increase in supply of unskilled labour keeps wages low for this segment of workers.
Associate Professor Hui Weng Tat from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy points out that depressed wages in Singapore is a real problem, highlighted by the fact that we have schemes such as the Workfare Income Supplement (WIS).
“The levy increase controls the inflow of foreign workers into Singapore as it narrows the wage gap and raises the attractiveness of Singaporeans,” says Prof Hui.
Since the depression of wages is a more chronic problem for lower income Singaporeans compared to the rest of the population, this trend, if not addressed, could potentially worsen income inequality here.
Budget 2010 should be commended for recognising these problems and implementing the levy hike as a progressive measure to address them – while at the same time pushing for improved productivity to help lower costs for employers.
Speaking to BT, MP for Ang Mo Kio GRC, Inderjit Singh, offered an alternative: “The levy increase will address the problem of depressed wages, but if we are to lower the cost burden on SMEs, then we can administer a minimum wage,” he suggests. He adds that the minimum wage can be subsidised by the government, via the mechanism of the WIS.
“The real solution is to improve productivity so that each worker can command a higher wage,” he says. “But until we get there, a minimum wage may be needed. This will help arrest the issues of low wages and wage inequality with little or no burden on companies for now.”
Adding to calls for a more comprehensive approach towards addressing this problem, Associate Professor Shandre Thangavelu from the National University of Singapore explains that since Singapore is a small and open economy, it will be useful to have a derivative of a minimum wage, with a flexible component to address unemployment fluctuations during economic downturns.
However, he adds that to solve the problem of depressed wages and wage inequality, a minimum wage alone would be inadequate. There should also be improvements in innovation and technology to substitute unskilled workers with more semi-skilled and skilled workers, he says.
The foreign worker levy increase serves as a good starting point for policy that can later be fine tuned. For companies, the hike may appear unnecessary and untimely. But from a public policy perspective, it can be seen as a measure that creates some short-term pain to achieve longer term gain.
If it is able to achieve its ultimate purpose – higher incomes for Singaporeans – companies will stand to benefit from a larger consumption pie. They will also gain from the productivity measures when they kick in due to a more optimal use of the factors of production.
As Prof Thangavelu sums up, “There is no doubt a trade-off here between long-term and mid-term growth. There will be an adjustment cost, and therefore the budget has given incentives to cope with this cost. However, it is better to make these changes now that we have just come out of a recession, rather than later.”
In other words, although the levy increase can cause some pain in the short run for some companies, it is a positive step towards long-term competitiveness for the economy as a whole.
In the longer term, both companies and the economy will adjust to the slower intake of foreign workers and will come out ahead.
German chancellor supports European Monetary Fund idea
German chancellor supports European Monetary Fund idea
France appears to be surprised by the speed of the proposal: NYT
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her backing on Monday for a European Monetary Fund (EMF) proposal to enhance inter-euro zone economic cooperation.
The idea for the EMF was mooted by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Saturday as a rescue fund, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to help member countries better deal with a future economic crisis.
Speaking to members of the foreign press association, Ms Merkel said that the euro zone’s “instruments are not sufficient” and it therefore “must be able to respond to the challenges of the moment”, reported Bloomberg. The European Commission, the executive agency of the European Union (EU), quickly endorsed the idea.
“The commission is ready to propose such a European instrument for assistance, which would require the support of all euro-area member states,” Amadeu Altafaj Tardio, a spokesman for the commission, told reporters in Brussels. “Things are moving very quickly.”
Finance ministers will discuss the plan at their regular meeting on Monday. Germany has usually resisted providing assistance to countries that get into fiscal trouble but German leaders have concluded that more cooperation is preferable to intervention by the IMF, reported The New York Times.
Yeo Lay Hwee, director of the EU Centre in Singapore and senior research fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, told BT: “This move to create an EMF makes one wonder about the role of the IMF and if it is still relevant in global financial governance. Clearly, the IMF reforms need to be taken more seriously.”
Dr Yeo, however, cautioned against speculation surrounding the EMF as it is still only an idea and no details are yet available as to its form and function. As Ms Merkel herself has indicated, the creation of an EMF may require treaty changes, which may be more difficult than imagined.
However, the EU’s Lisbon treaty, which came into force on Dec 1, does not allow for bailing out eurozone countries, but it does permit aid to EU members outside the currency area.
“I think the idea (of a European Monetary Fund) is a good one. Without changing the treaty, it cannot be done. . . If the European Union is to be capable of taking action, it will run into such questions. The EU treaty will not be the end of history,” she said.
According to The New York Times, although French officials appeared to be surprised by the speed of the proposal, they supported it in principle.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou also announced on Monday that his country will support the idea of the rescue fund, but pointed out that Greece did not require such assistance from the EU at present.
Speaking during his tour of the United States, which involves meetings with President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Mr Papandreou said his recent discussions with Ms Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy showed that “there is a will for creating some ad hoc mechanism” that would help the country borrow at reasonable costs.
Reuben Wong, assistant professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, told BT that the euro bloc will not allow Greece to fail.
“Should Greece fail, the political fallout will be too damaging for the euro area. President Sarkozy has already announced that France must support the rescue of Greece, which is a major European country and an economy that cannot be ignored,” Dr Wong said.
It is unlikely that the fund would be in place in time to help Greece through its debt crisis, but it could help tackle any similar crises that arose in other heavily indebted EU states, Reuters reported.
But European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark fiercely criticised the idea, which he said would break European rules, penalise countries with solid finances and encourage wayward spending. Such a fund “would become very expensive, set the wrong incentives and burden (those) countries with more solid public finances”, he wrote in German newspaper Handelsblatt.
There were also concerns about the impact of the EMF on open trade.
“Although the structure of the EMF remains to be seen, we must ask if this will lead to more closed-bloc politics. While regional integration will be deepened, the EU must not stop engaging other regions,” said Dr Yeo.
Meanwhile, the European Commission said it was ready to propose a rescue fund for the 16 countries using the euro by the end of June, and would discuss it for the first time on Tuesday, but noted that it was too early to say whether the fund would be just a financial instrument or a new institutional body with its own staff and budget.
France appears to be surprised by the speed of the proposal: NYT
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her backing on Monday for a European Monetary Fund (EMF) proposal to enhance inter-euro zone economic cooperation.
The idea for the EMF was mooted by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Saturday as a rescue fund, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to help member countries better deal with a future economic crisis.
Speaking to members of the foreign press association, Ms Merkel said that the euro zone’s “instruments are not sufficient” and it therefore “must be able to respond to the challenges of the moment”, reported Bloomberg. The European Commission, the executive agency of the European Union (EU), quickly endorsed the idea.
“The commission is ready to propose such a European instrument for assistance, which would require the support of all euro-area member states,” Amadeu Altafaj Tardio, a spokesman for the commission, told reporters in Brussels. “Things are moving very quickly.”
Finance ministers will discuss the plan at their regular meeting on Monday. Germany has usually resisted providing assistance to countries that get into fiscal trouble but German leaders have concluded that more cooperation is preferable to intervention by the IMF, reported The New York Times.
Yeo Lay Hwee, director of the EU Centre in Singapore and senior research fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, told BT: “This move to create an EMF makes one wonder about the role of the IMF and if it is still relevant in global financial governance. Clearly, the IMF reforms need to be taken more seriously.”
Dr Yeo, however, cautioned against speculation surrounding the EMF as it is still only an idea and no details are yet available as to its form and function. As Ms Merkel herself has indicated, the creation of an EMF may require treaty changes, which may be more difficult than imagined.
However, the EU’s Lisbon treaty, which came into force on Dec 1, does not allow for bailing out eurozone countries, but it does permit aid to EU members outside the currency area.
“I think the idea (of a European Monetary Fund) is a good one. Without changing the treaty, it cannot be done. . . If the European Union is to be capable of taking action, it will run into such questions. The EU treaty will not be the end of history,” she said.
According to The New York Times, although French officials appeared to be surprised by the speed of the proposal, they supported it in principle.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou also announced on Monday that his country will support the idea of the rescue fund, but pointed out that Greece did not require such assistance from the EU at present.
Speaking during his tour of the United States, which involves meetings with President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Mr Papandreou said his recent discussions with Ms Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy showed that “there is a will for creating some ad hoc mechanism” that would help the country borrow at reasonable costs.
Reuben Wong, assistant professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, told BT that the euro bloc will not allow Greece to fail.
“Should Greece fail, the political fallout will be too damaging for the euro area. President Sarkozy has already announced that France must support the rescue of Greece, which is a major European country and an economy that cannot be ignored,” Dr Wong said.
It is unlikely that the fund would be in place in time to help Greece through its debt crisis, but it could help tackle any similar crises that arose in other heavily indebted EU states, Reuters reported.
But European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark fiercely criticised the idea, which he said would break European rules, penalise countries with solid finances and encourage wayward spending. Such a fund “would become very expensive, set the wrong incentives and burden (those) countries with more solid public finances”, he wrote in German newspaper Handelsblatt.
There were also concerns about the impact of the EMF on open trade.
“Although the structure of the EMF remains to be seen, we must ask if this will lead to more closed-bloc politics. While regional integration will be deepened, the EU must not stop engaging other regions,” said Dr Yeo.
Meanwhile, the European Commission said it was ready to propose a rescue fund for the 16 countries using the euro by the end of June, and would discuss it for the first time on Tuesday, but noted that it was too early to say whether the fund would be just a financial instrument or a new institutional body with its own staff and budget.
Yuan may not follow China trade bounce
Yuan may not follow China trade bounce
Latest numbers may not present full picture, revaluation not likely soon
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
[SINGAPORE] China’s better than expected trade results, released yesterday, prompted speculation that a revaluation of the currency may come soon but analysts have warned that this may not be the case.
Exports in February stood at US$94.52 billion, up 45.7 per cent, while imports rose 44.7 per cent to US$86.91 billion. The surge in exports saw China record a trade surplus of US$7.6 billion in February, compared with US$14.2 billion in January, reported Reuters. The statistics released exceeded economists’ predictions for US$8.0 billion surplus based on a 38.7 per cent rise in exports and a 39.7 per cent rise in imports from February last year.
Jun Ma, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, told Reuters that the data cemented his view that exports in 2010 could surge 30 per cent, dwarfing Beijing’s forecast of an 8 per cent rise. “Obviously, it will translate into stronger pressure for exchange rate reform and it will also add inflationary pressure to the domestic economy, because when exports recover, prices tend to go up. It will reinforce the argument for further policy tightening,” Mr Ma said.
Ren Xianfang, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Beijing, told AFP that this development “will give China’s government more confidence to start revaluing the yuan”.
However, the General Administration of Customs explained that since February 2010 had fewer working days due to the Chinese New Year holiday, it combined data from January and February to provide a more accurate reflection of the actual trade conditions. Using this methodology, exports surged 31.4 per cent to US$204 billion in the first two months over the same period last year and imports stood at US$182.3 billion, up 63.6 per cent, reported Xinhua.
This prompted some economists to advise caution from being too optimistic about the data released.
Also, as Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank in Shanghai, told Reuters, the low base of comparison with early 2009, when demand was depressed by the global credit crisis, flattered yesterday’s figures. Adjusting the totals for changes in the number of working days and holidays, exports fell from the previous month for the second month in a row – by 2.2 per cent – suggesting that the recovery in global demand was not as vigorous as imagined.
“I think the sequential figures will cool down expectations of near-term yuan appreciation before trade fully recovers,” said Mr Lu.
As China’s two largest trading partners, the European Union and the United States, continue to face high unemployment rates and domestic economic uncertainty, it may be some time before China’s trade increases to levels that may force policy-makers to consider revaluing the yuan.
“Although China’s exports have regained momentum since the beginning of this year, it would take two or three years for exports to return to the level of 2008, as global recovery is still haunted by uncertainties,” Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming said on Saturday.
The data did not have a deep impact on market reaction except on commodity-linked currencies as China’s economic growth supports its large appetite for commodity imports. The Australian dollar rose as far as US$0.9171, its highest since Jan 20, according to Reuters data, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.6 per cent to a three-week high of US$0.7076.
Latest numbers may not present full picture, revaluation not likely soon
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
[SINGAPORE] China’s better than expected trade results, released yesterday, prompted speculation that a revaluation of the currency may come soon but analysts have warned that this may not be the case.
Exports in February stood at US$94.52 billion, up 45.7 per cent, while imports rose 44.7 per cent to US$86.91 billion. The surge in exports saw China record a trade surplus of US$7.6 billion in February, compared with US$14.2 billion in January, reported Reuters. The statistics released exceeded economists’ predictions for US$8.0 billion surplus based on a 38.7 per cent rise in exports and a 39.7 per cent rise in imports from February last year.
Jun Ma, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, told Reuters that the data cemented his view that exports in 2010 could surge 30 per cent, dwarfing Beijing’s forecast of an 8 per cent rise. “Obviously, it will translate into stronger pressure for exchange rate reform and it will also add inflationary pressure to the domestic economy, because when exports recover, prices tend to go up. It will reinforce the argument for further policy tightening,” Mr Ma said.
Ren Xianfang, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Beijing, told AFP that this development “will give China’s government more confidence to start revaluing the yuan”.
However, the General Administration of Customs explained that since February 2010 had fewer working days due to the Chinese New Year holiday, it combined data from January and February to provide a more accurate reflection of the actual trade conditions. Using this methodology, exports surged 31.4 per cent to US$204 billion in the first two months over the same period last year and imports stood at US$182.3 billion, up 63.6 per cent, reported Xinhua.
This prompted some economists to advise caution from being too optimistic about the data released.
Also, as Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank in Shanghai, told Reuters, the low base of comparison with early 2009, when demand was depressed by the global credit crisis, flattered yesterday’s figures. Adjusting the totals for changes in the number of working days and holidays, exports fell from the previous month for the second month in a row – by 2.2 per cent – suggesting that the recovery in global demand was not as vigorous as imagined.
“I think the sequential figures will cool down expectations of near-term yuan appreciation before trade fully recovers,” said Mr Lu.
As China’s two largest trading partners, the European Union and the United States, continue to face high unemployment rates and domestic economic uncertainty, it may be some time before China’s trade increases to levels that may force policy-makers to consider revaluing the yuan.
“Although China’s exports have regained momentum since the beginning of this year, it would take two or three years for exports to return to the level of 2008, as global recovery is still haunted by uncertainties,” Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming said on Saturday.
The data did not have a deep impact on market reaction except on commodity-linked currencies as China’s economic growth supports its large appetite for commodity imports. The Australian dollar rose as far as US$0.9171, its highest since Jan 20, according to Reuters data, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.6 per cent to a three-week high of US$0.7076.
What Asian economic integration needs
What Asian economic integration needs
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
THERE should be a greater institutional presence in Asia to facilitate economic integration in the region.
This was the key message that Barry Eichengreen delivered in his public lecture on Asian Economic Integration at the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) yesterday.
Professor Eichengreen, the newly appointed MAS Term Professor in Economics and Finance, explained that a more elaborate institutional presence in Asia would help cement existing gains, widen geographical coverage as well as further deepen economic integration.
He highlighted that regional integration efforts thus far have contributed to the growth of economic activity and living standards. Prof Eichengreen explained, however, that while trade shares and intensity have increased in Asia, this has happened at differing rates in different sub-regions, with East Asia experiencing greater progress in this regard as compared to South and Central Asia.
Prof Eichengreen, who is also professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, said that going forward, institutional building in Asia should be more systemic as opposed to the ad hoc and reactive approach currently used. He suggested six areas in which institutional presence could be strengthened in the region. Firstly, he suggested making the most of current international conventions such as those from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the 1980 United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods. This would be easy to harmonise since their designs were already done.
Prof Eichengreen said that Asia should also look to develop institutions to exploit sub-regional opportunities such as enhancing transport infrastructure, exploring new economic corridors and perhaps more bilateral and sub-regional free trade agreements (FTAs). He added that there should be more opportunities for sub-regional groupings like Asean and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to connect, perhaps through annual summits or conventions.
Prof Eichengreen recommended introducing a compliance board, made up of business and academic members, to help monitor and assess what institutions are doing and urged Asean to consider such a set-up as it would improve transparency. Further, he called for the Asean Secretariat to be given more freedom in setting the agenda and suggested that current review processes in Asean be strengthened. He pointed out that these measures would help strengthen existing groups and that governments should even consider expanding the Asean + 3 grouping, with an eventual objective of a pan-regional institution in mind.
The lecture was organised by MAS and the National University of Singapore Department of Economics.
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
THERE should be a greater institutional presence in Asia to facilitate economic integration in the region.
This was the key message that Barry Eichengreen delivered in his public lecture on Asian Economic Integration at the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) yesterday.
Professor Eichengreen, the newly appointed MAS Term Professor in Economics and Finance, explained that a more elaborate institutional presence in Asia would help cement existing gains, widen geographical coverage as well as further deepen economic integration.
He highlighted that regional integration efforts thus far have contributed to the growth of economic activity and living standards. Prof Eichengreen explained, however, that while trade shares and intensity have increased in Asia, this has happened at differing rates in different sub-regions, with East Asia experiencing greater progress in this regard as compared to South and Central Asia.
Prof Eichengreen, who is also professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, said that going forward, institutional building in Asia should be more systemic as opposed to the ad hoc and reactive approach currently used. He suggested six areas in which institutional presence could be strengthened in the region. Firstly, he suggested making the most of current international conventions such as those from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the 1980 United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods. This would be easy to harmonise since their designs were already done.
Prof Eichengreen said that Asia should also look to develop institutions to exploit sub-regional opportunities such as enhancing transport infrastructure, exploring new economic corridors and perhaps more bilateral and sub-regional free trade agreements (FTAs). He added that there should be more opportunities for sub-regional groupings like Asean and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to connect, perhaps through annual summits or conventions.
Prof Eichengreen recommended introducing a compliance board, made up of business and academic members, to help monitor and assess what institutions are doing and urged Asean to consider such a set-up as it would improve transparency. Further, he called for the Asean Secretariat to be given more freedom in setting the agenda and suggested that current review processes in Asean be strengthened. He pointed out that these measures would help strengthen existing groups and that governments should even consider expanding the Asean + 3 grouping, with an eventual objective of a pan-regional institution in mind.
The lecture was organised by MAS and the National University of Singapore Department of Economics.
S’pore unis see opportunities in India’s new education policy
S’pore unis see opportunities in India’s new education policy
They see a chance to increase their presence in a lucrative market
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
INSTEAD of seeing India’s move to allow foreign universities to set up local campuses as a threat, Singapore’s universities and private education institutions are looking at it as an opportunity to expand their presence there.
The Indian Cabinet’s ratification of the Foreign Educational Institutions Bill, partially designed to arrest the outflow of Indian students, has been seen as potentially detrimental to Singapore’s higher education providers who see many Indian students.
They, however, remain optimistic and, in fact, see it as an opportunity to increase their presence in a lucrative market. The number of Indian students in higher education stands at 14 million currently, but sources say that the Indian government has targeted to raise this figure to 21 million by 2012.
The Singapore Management University (SMU), for one, is already looking for partnerships with Indian universities for postgraduate education in areas such as finance, wealth and healthcare management, Rajendra K Srivastava, provost and deputy president (academic affairs) at SMU, told BT.
“On the postgraduate front, India is very much on the radar of SMU for executive education, including specialised master’s programmes and customised training for professionals,” he said.
Others with pre-existing partnerships there may be looking to expand further.
Peter Pang, assistant vice-president, university & global relations at the National University of Singapore (NUS), pointed out that NUS has partnerships with several universities in India, including joint PhD programmes with the Indian Institute of Technology Mumbai, the Indian Institute of Technology Chennai {SEE CORRECTION 1 ABOVE}, and the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, as well as an NUS Overseas College in India.
“The foreign universities bill will open up even more opportunities for collaboration,” he said.
Raffles Education Corporation in Singapore, which already has seven education centres in various Indian cities through joint venture projects with Educomp Solutions, India’s largest education company, may also be on the lookout, although chairman and chief executive officer Chew Hua Seng preferred to comment broadly on this development. “The new law is timely to unleash India’s vast human resource potential to propel it forward economically”, he said. Local players, however, will have their work cut out for them because international players are getting in on the game, too.
New York-based Columbia University will be setting up an international centre for research and regional collaboration in Mumbai later this month, while the Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC), which conducts the Graduate Management Aptitude Test (GMAT), has also announced plans to set up an office in India, its third globally after the United States and the UK.
But still, most remain buoyant about prospects because “the Indian market is big enough to accommodate multiple players”, said a Singapore Institute of Management {SEE CORRECTION 2 ABOVE} (SIM) spokesman.
“(Even though) with market liberalisation Indian students will have more choices, Singapore will still be attractive to international students who want an overseas education in a safe and vibrant multi-cultural environment, as well as one that offers attractive career opportunities in the future.”
The devil is in the details though. The fine print of the bill includes clauses that bar the foreign universities from repatriating profits and put conditions on them to shell out around 500 million rupees (S$15.3 million) upfront and make complete disclosure on their curriculum and faculties, reported India’s Financial Express.
Such clauses may influence Singapore-based institutions to enter the market through joint ventures and partnerships, rather than establishing a direct presence, and to be more cautious about expansion plans. “It is still too early to tell at our current stage of development,” reiterated the SIM spokesman. “We would like to remain focused on our mission, which is to provide good-quality education for adult learners in Singapore.”
But still no one doubts that India’s new bill will up the ante in the education business.
“India’s policy will spur us to be more competitive,” said Lalit Goel, dean of admissions and financial aid at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU). “NTU will continue to put in effort to attract talent . . . We are always looking for bright talent from all countries, including India, and due to the sheer volume of applicants from India, we do not believe that this will affect applications significantly.”
Prof Srivastava echoed the positive sentiments. “SMU has always been a popular destination for Indian students seeking higher education given our close proximity in the heart of Asia and the excellent connections we have with Indian businesses. I believe that going abroad for tertiary studies remains a very attractive option among Indian students for the global exposure and opportunity to know the region better.”
‘Going abroad for tertiary studies remains a very attractive option among Indian students for the global exposure and opportunity to know the region better.’ – Prof Srivastava
They see a chance to increase their presence in a lucrative market
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
INSTEAD of seeing India’s move to allow foreign universities to set up local campuses as a threat, Singapore’s universities and private education institutions are looking at it as an opportunity to expand their presence there.
The Indian Cabinet’s ratification of the Foreign Educational Institutions Bill, partially designed to arrest the outflow of Indian students, has been seen as potentially detrimental to Singapore’s higher education providers who see many Indian students.
They, however, remain optimistic and, in fact, see it as an opportunity to increase their presence in a lucrative market. The number of Indian students in higher education stands at 14 million currently, but sources say that the Indian government has targeted to raise this figure to 21 million by 2012.
The Singapore Management University (SMU), for one, is already looking for partnerships with Indian universities for postgraduate education in areas such as finance, wealth and healthcare management, Rajendra K Srivastava, provost and deputy president (academic affairs) at SMU, told BT.
“On the postgraduate front, India is very much on the radar of SMU for executive education, including specialised master’s programmes and customised training for professionals,” he said.
Others with pre-existing partnerships there may be looking to expand further.
Peter Pang, assistant vice-president, university & global relations at the National University of Singapore (NUS), pointed out that NUS has partnerships with several universities in India, including joint PhD programmes with the Indian Institute of Technology Mumbai, the Indian Institute of Technology Chennai {SEE CORRECTION 1 ABOVE}, and the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, as well as an NUS Overseas College in India.
“The foreign universities bill will open up even more opportunities for collaboration,” he said.
Raffles Education Corporation in Singapore, which already has seven education centres in various Indian cities through joint venture projects with Educomp Solutions, India’s largest education company, may also be on the lookout, although chairman and chief executive officer Chew Hua Seng preferred to comment broadly on this development. “The new law is timely to unleash India’s vast human resource potential to propel it forward economically”, he said. Local players, however, will have their work cut out for them because international players are getting in on the game, too.
New York-based Columbia University will be setting up an international centre for research and regional collaboration in Mumbai later this month, while the Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC), which conducts the Graduate Management Aptitude Test (GMAT), has also announced plans to set up an office in India, its third globally after the United States and the UK.
But still, most remain buoyant about prospects because “the Indian market is big enough to accommodate multiple players”, said a Singapore Institute of Management {SEE CORRECTION 2 ABOVE} (SIM) spokesman.
“(Even though) with market liberalisation Indian students will have more choices, Singapore will still be attractive to international students who want an overseas education in a safe and vibrant multi-cultural environment, as well as one that offers attractive career opportunities in the future.”
The devil is in the details though. The fine print of the bill includes clauses that bar the foreign universities from repatriating profits and put conditions on them to shell out around 500 million rupees (S$15.3 million) upfront and make complete disclosure on their curriculum and faculties, reported India’s Financial Express.
Such clauses may influence Singapore-based institutions to enter the market through joint ventures and partnerships, rather than establishing a direct presence, and to be more cautious about expansion plans. “It is still too early to tell at our current stage of development,” reiterated the SIM spokesman. “We would like to remain focused on our mission, which is to provide good-quality education for adult learners in Singapore.”
But still no one doubts that India’s new bill will up the ante in the education business.
“India’s policy will spur us to be more competitive,” said Lalit Goel, dean of admissions and financial aid at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU). “NTU will continue to put in effort to attract talent . . . We are always looking for bright talent from all countries, including India, and due to the sheer volume of applicants from India, we do not believe that this will affect applications significantly.”
Prof Srivastava echoed the positive sentiments. “SMU has always been a popular destination for Indian students seeking higher education given our close proximity in the heart of Asia and the excellent connections we have with Indian businesses. I believe that going abroad for tertiary studies remains a very attractive option among Indian students for the global exposure and opportunity to know the region better.”
‘Going abroad for tertiary studies remains a very attractive option among Indian students for the global exposure and opportunity to know the region better.’ – Prof Srivastava
CECA review may begin soon
CECA review may begin soon
It will address areas such as mutual recognition agreements
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
[SINGAPORE] The review of Singapore’s Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with India could be launched as soon next month, said India’s High Commissioner to Singapore, TCA Raghavan, at the sidelines of the Opportunities in Special Economic Zones (SEZ) Sector in India conference yesterday.
Mr Raghavan said that some preliminary work has already been done for a review of the CECA, and it will be formally launched when Minister for Trade Lim Hng Kiang visits India. He added that the review will take into account the changes in the overall trade scenario since the CECA was signed in 2005, which provides traders in Singapore more opportunities as they can now benefit from both the CECA and the Asean-India free trade agreement.
“I think the review will certainly address areas which both sides feel could do with more focus. One area is the MRAs – the Mutual Recognition Agreements. There has been some progress, and some things only mature over time. And the MRAs are a process which depends a lot on the professional organisations on both sides. I think there will be progress in those areas,” elaborated the high commissioner on the possibility of a new and improved CECA.
He also told reporters that the CECA review will be an ongoing dialogue with both countries’ trade ministers making bilateral visits. The review is expected to extend over several months and is expected to be completed substantially by the end of this year.
Singapore is the second largest investor in India, providing 9 per cent of India’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Mr Raghavan was confident that investment flows between both countries can grow out of the shadows of last year’s dampened global investment climate, and attributed this to India’s macroeconomic stability and a potentially high quality trade in investments agreement between India and Asean, which Singapore investors may find complementary to the CECA.
“One example is the very good turnout we’ve seen in this conference from both India and Singapore. From India, we have about 35 SEZ developers and officials participating, and even more so in terms of the local participation and the queries we have had. The High Commission can provide a platform and our intention is to make the platform as focused as possible, that is to look at the sectors and sub-sectors because the overall argument is now well made and well known – that is, the Indian economy is going to be a growth story over the next decade,” he said.
LB Singhal, director general of India’s Export Promotion Council for Export Oriented Units and SEZs (EPCES), said that there were 575 formal SEZ approvals in India at the end of 2009. Some 105 of these were already functioning and housing as many as 2,761 units, he said. He also pointed out that Singapore companies could play a role in these SEZs as developers or as individual units. In doing so, he highlighted that they stand to benefit through various tax exemptions, duty free goods and 100 per cent FDI through the automatic route, among other features.
Mr Lim said that Singapore companies have gained much experience from planning, developing and implementing SEZs in the region and could apply this expertise to the Indian case, notably in the areas of master planning and industrial development, and in establishing an efficient transport and logistics chain.
Mr Lim noted that although concerns surrounding land acquisition, resettlement and creation of employment need to be addressed and managed effectively, Singapore companies such as Ascendas have done well in India and have a lot to offer to SEZs there.
It will address areas such as mutual recognition agreements
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
[SINGAPORE] The review of Singapore’s Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with India could be launched as soon next month, said India’s High Commissioner to Singapore, TCA Raghavan, at the sidelines of the Opportunities in Special Economic Zones (SEZ) Sector in India conference yesterday.
Mr Raghavan said that some preliminary work has already been done for a review of the CECA, and it will be formally launched when Minister for Trade Lim Hng Kiang visits India. He added that the review will take into account the changes in the overall trade scenario since the CECA was signed in 2005, which provides traders in Singapore more opportunities as they can now benefit from both the CECA and the Asean-India free trade agreement.
“I think the review will certainly address areas which both sides feel could do with more focus. One area is the MRAs – the Mutual Recognition Agreements. There has been some progress, and some things only mature over time. And the MRAs are a process which depends a lot on the professional organisations on both sides. I think there will be progress in those areas,” elaborated the high commissioner on the possibility of a new and improved CECA.
He also told reporters that the CECA review will be an ongoing dialogue with both countries’ trade ministers making bilateral visits. The review is expected to extend over several months and is expected to be completed substantially by the end of this year.
Singapore is the second largest investor in India, providing 9 per cent of India’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Mr Raghavan was confident that investment flows between both countries can grow out of the shadows of last year’s dampened global investment climate, and attributed this to India’s macroeconomic stability and a potentially high quality trade in investments agreement between India and Asean, which Singapore investors may find complementary to the CECA.
“One example is the very good turnout we’ve seen in this conference from both India and Singapore. From India, we have about 35 SEZ developers and officials participating, and even more so in terms of the local participation and the queries we have had. The High Commission can provide a platform and our intention is to make the platform as focused as possible, that is to look at the sectors and sub-sectors because the overall argument is now well made and well known – that is, the Indian economy is going to be a growth story over the next decade,” he said.
LB Singhal, director general of India’s Export Promotion Council for Export Oriented Units and SEZs (EPCES), said that there were 575 formal SEZ approvals in India at the end of 2009. Some 105 of these were already functioning and housing as many as 2,761 units, he said. He also pointed out that Singapore companies could play a role in these SEZs as developers or as individual units. In doing so, he highlighted that they stand to benefit through various tax exemptions, duty free goods and 100 per cent FDI through the automatic route, among other features.
Mr Lim said that Singapore companies have gained much experience from planning, developing and implementing SEZs in the region and could apply this expertise to the Indian case, notably in the areas of master planning and industrial development, and in establishing an efficient transport and logistics chain.
Mr Lim noted that although concerns surrounding land acquisition, resettlement and creation of employment need to be addressed and managed effectively, Singapore companies such as Ascendas have done well in India and have a lot to offer to SEZs there.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
HSBC's customised trade finance for S'pore firms
HSBC's customised trade finance for S'pore firms
Bank may soon offer option for S'pore-India trade
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
(SINGAPORE) Singapore companies looking to do business in India may soon look towards customised trade financing options available there, according to Puneet Chaddha, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC)'s managing director and head of commercial banking, India.
Speaking to The Business Times, he explained that while HSBC's standard products are good to a point, custom-made options are necessary and thus the bank is putting together the proposition of developing country-specific financing products.
Quoting examples of the India-Bangladesh and the India-UAE customised trade financing packages currently available in India, Mr Chaddha added that we are likely to see the same appearing for India-Singapore trade.
Such a development is likely to improve documentation and processes standardisation between banks in Singapore and India. Mr Chaddha said this would allow Singapore companies doing business in India to gain better access to financing than before and they would save through lower financial costs and turnaround time.
The global economic recession has altered the trend of financing choices for businesses in India. According to Mr Chaddha, the involvement of banks was kept low in the pre-crisis environment as buyers and sellers trusted each other more with credit options. However, as commercial trust becomes more fragile with the onslaught of the recession, more companies have turned to banks and their instruments, such as letters of credit, as credit enhancers.
Currently, Mr Chaddha explained, both small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large multinational corporations (MNCs) can draw from a host of financing structures and trade products that the banks in India provide. He pointed out that MNCs may also raise financing domestically or off-shore, depending on which is the cheaper market to borrow from.
Singapore is India's 14th largest import market and fourth largest export destination, as well as being the second largest provider of foreign direct investment into India. While Singapore's exports to India have largely been concentrated in mineral oils, electrical and medical equipment and organic chemicals, recent announcements by the Indian government to liberalise certain sectors of the economy, particularly financial services, higher education and defence, could signal more opportunities for businesses in Singapore.
'I see a greater sense of comfort among Singapore companies in doing business in India now,' Mr Chaddha said. 'As a result of the recent announcements by the Indian Finance Minister (on offering more banking licences), we will see more Singapore companies setting up operations in India, and particularly in the financial services industry,' he added.
HSBC, according to Mr Chaddha, will be following this segment of leading international business very closely as it looks to focus on facilitating cross-border trade. As such, he said the bank is clear that it will look towards penetrating the market that the India-Singapore trade flows creates.
At the same time, he explains that HSBC will create a proposition that it would like to bring to its customers in this segment, so as to highlight the benefits they may enjoy in doing business with the bank. This, he says, represents a more scientific approach to bilateral trade that HSBC is looking to adopt as opposed to simply targeting a certain percentage share of the market and he is confident that this will be a successful strategy.
Mr Chaddha was in Singapore to speak at a session of the International Enterprise Singapore's advisory seminar series on 'Doing Business in India' yesterday.
Bank may soon offer option for S'pore-India trade
By MALMINDERJIT SINGH
(SINGAPORE) Singapore companies looking to do business in India may soon look towards customised trade financing options available there, according to Puneet Chaddha, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC)'s managing director and head of commercial banking, India.
Speaking to The Business Times, he explained that while HSBC's standard products are good to a point, custom-made options are necessary and thus the bank is putting together the proposition of developing country-specific financing products.
Quoting examples of the India-Bangladesh and the India-UAE customised trade financing packages currently available in India, Mr Chaddha added that we are likely to see the same appearing for India-Singapore trade.
Such a development is likely to improve documentation and processes standardisation between banks in Singapore and India. Mr Chaddha said this would allow Singapore companies doing business in India to gain better access to financing than before and they would save through lower financial costs and turnaround time.
The global economic recession has altered the trend of financing choices for businesses in India. According to Mr Chaddha, the involvement of banks was kept low in the pre-crisis environment as buyers and sellers trusted each other more with credit options. However, as commercial trust becomes more fragile with the onslaught of the recession, more companies have turned to banks and their instruments, such as letters of credit, as credit enhancers.
Currently, Mr Chaddha explained, both small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large multinational corporations (MNCs) can draw from a host of financing structures and trade products that the banks in India provide. He pointed out that MNCs may also raise financing domestically or off-shore, depending on which is the cheaper market to borrow from.
Singapore is India's 14th largest import market and fourth largest export destination, as well as being the second largest provider of foreign direct investment into India. While Singapore's exports to India have largely been concentrated in mineral oils, electrical and medical equipment and organic chemicals, recent announcements by the Indian government to liberalise certain sectors of the economy, particularly financial services, higher education and defence, could signal more opportunities for businesses in Singapore.
'I see a greater sense of comfort among Singapore companies in doing business in India now,' Mr Chaddha said. 'As a result of the recent announcements by the Indian Finance Minister (on offering more banking licences), we will see more Singapore companies setting up operations in India, and particularly in the financial services industry,' he added.
HSBC, according to Mr Chaddha, will be following this segment of leading international business very closely as it looks to focus on facilitating cross-border trade. As such, he said the bank is clear that it will look towards penetrating the market that the India-Singapore trade flows creates.
At the same time, he explains that HSBC will create a proposition that it would like to bring to its customers in this segment, so as to highlight the benefits they may enjoy in doing business with the bank. This, he says, represents a more scientific approach to bilateral trade that HSBC is looking to adopt as opposed to simply targeting a certain percentage share of the market and he is confident that this will be a successful strategy.
Mr Chaddha was in Singapore to speak at a session of the International Enterprise Singapore's advisory seminar series on 'Doing Business in India' yesterday.
Expect a Bold Budget
Expect a Bold Budget
By Malminderjit Singh
In the run up to the Budget, to be unveiled by Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam this afternoon, the rumour mills have been working overtime on what might be in store. While analysts have expressed mixed views on the likely contents of the Budget, many would agree that expectations in this year of economic recovery are higher than usual.
There are signs to indicate that Budget 2010 will be bold, and will target some broad objectives, as well as some very specific ones. But the economic backdrop to the Budget, while better than last year, is by no means rosy. Although the government has raised its growth forecast to 4.5-6.5 per cent for this year, in reality there are still obstacles to steering the economy to a full recovery. As long as US unemployment figures remain grim and the debt crises afflicting Europe, as well as Dubai, continues to fester, any talk of full recovery is premature.
Clouding the picture even more are the growing asset bubbles in parts of Asia, coupled with high inflation levels in China and India - which could lead to policy tightening in this region and add to the slack in global demand. Given such uncertainties, yet another bold Budget may be necessary to help stimulate the domestic economy.
Moreover, with the General Elections possibly on the horizon later this year, the government may be unwilling to risk any decline in economic growth. This is another reason for it to lean towards an expansionary budget to boost job creation and output. We already have a foretaste of what is to come in the recommendations of the Economic Strategies Committee on Feb 1. It could be argued that the ESC recommendations did not produce as much excitement as expected. After all, the push for productivity and enterprise development, which the committee emphasised, has reappeared many a time over the decades and then fallen off the radar screen. However, the ESC's role was not to generate hype or excitement, but to come up with ways to achieve more sustainable and inclusive growth.
The excitement could be delivered through other means, including the Budget. If the ESC's framework was skeletal, then the Budget will look to add flesh and muscle. It could make the recommendations more concrete and help improve their mass acceptance. An expansionary Budget would be most conducive to measures aimed at restructuring the economy.
Expect Budget 2010 to also address social issues, albeit subtly. This is as good a time as any for the government to use the fiscal tools at its disposal to tackle rising socio-economic concerns. For instance, by incentivising companies to focus on worker productivity, the government would be able to begin the process of reducing Singapore's dependence on low-cost labour from overseas. It is no secret that the influx of foreign labour has been on the minds of many Singaporeans, and this is likely to be addressed in the Budget. There have also been calls for a minimum wage to help tackle the issues of depressed wages and rising income inequality.
If the government does introduce a minimum wage, or a derivative in some part, then it could help improve the standards of living of a significant proportion of Singaporeans. Thus, while previous Budgets have been geared mainly towards economic concerns, do not be surprised if the measures in Budget 2010 are also focused on social policies.
Of course, we should not expect this year's budget to dig as deep into the coffers as did last year's $20.5 billion Resilience Package. After all, the Resilience Package was an urgent solution to help the economy avert the worst effects of the recession - which it did successfully. This time around, the Budget is likely to be less extraordinarily generous. But it could contain measures that have a profound long term impact in terms of guiding the direction of Singapore's future economic development
By Malminderjit Singh
In the run up to the Budget, to be unveiled by Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam this afternoon, the rumour mills have been working overtime on what might be in store. While analysts have expressed mixed views on the likely contents of the Budget, many would agree that expectations in this year of economic recovery are higher than usual.
There are signs to indicate that Budget 2010 will be bold, and will target some broad objectives, as well as some very specific ones. But the economic backdrop to the Budget, while better than last year, is by no means rosy. Although the government has raised its growth forecast to 4.5-6.5 per cent for this year, in reality there are still obstacles to steering the economy to a full recovery. As long as US unemployment figures remain grim and the debt crises afflicting Europe, as well as Dubai, continues to fester, any talk of full recovery is premature.
Clouding the picture even more are the growing asset bubbles in parts of Asia, coupled with high inflation levels in China and India - which could lead to policy tightening in this region and add to the slack in global demand. Given such uncertainties, yet another bold Budget may be necessary to help stimulate the domestic economy.
Moreover, with the General Elections possibly on the horizon later this year, the government may be unwilling to risk any decline in economic growth. This is another reason for it to lean towards an expansionary budget to boost job creation and output. We already have a foretaste of what is to come in the recommendations of the Economic Strategies Committee on Feb 1. It could be argued that the ESC recommendations did not produce as much excitement as expected. After all, the push for productivity and enterprise development, which the committee emphasised, has reappeared many a time over the decades and then fallen off the radar screen. However, the ESC's role was not to generate hype or excitement, but to come up with ways to achieve more sustainable and inclusive growth.
The excitement could be delivered through other means, including the Budget. If the ESC's framework was skeletal, then the Budget will look to add flesh and muscle. It could make the recommendations more concrete and help improve their mass acceptance. An expansionary Budget would be most conducive to measures aimed at restructuring the economy.
Expect Budget 2010 to also address social issues, albeit subtly. This is as good a time as any for the government to use the fiscal tools at its disposal to tackle rising socio-economic concerns. For instance, by incentivising companies to focus on worker productivity, the government would be able to begin the process of reducing Singapore's dependence on low-cost labour from overseas. It is no secret that the influx of foreign labour has been on the minds of many Singaporeans, and this is likely to be addressed in the Budget. There have also been calls for a minimum wage to help tackle the issues of depressed wages and rising income inequality.
If the government does introduce a minimum wage, or a derivative in some part, then it could help improve the standards of living of a significant proportion of Singaporeans. Thus, while previous Budgets have been geared mainly towards economic concerns, do not be surprised if the measures in Budget 2010 are also focused on social policies.
Of course, we should not expect this year's budget to dig as deep into the coffers as did last year's $20.5 billion Resilience Package. After all, the Resilience Package was an urgent solution to help the economy avert the worst effects of the recession - which it did successfully. This time around, the Budget is likely to be less extraordinarily generous. But it could contain measures that have a profound long term impact in terms of guiding the direction of Singapore's future economic development
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Buoyed by growth, India to cut deficit - February 27, 2010
Buoyed by growth, India to cut deficit - February 27, 2010
My article in the Business Times on the Indian Budget 2010.
My article in the Business Times on the Indian Budget 2010.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Watch List for 2010
We are well into 2010 so it is timely to anticipate the events that Singaporeans will need to look out for as these are most likely to have the greatest impact on the country collectively. In no particular order, here are the 10 events most likely to shape public debate:
1. Budget 2010
The Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) has already announced its recommendations, which are a prelude to Budget 2010 announced by the Minister of Finance on 22nd Feb. It remains to be seen how bullish the government will be in rolling out incentives this year. Analysts have predicted that we are unlikely to see figures close to the $20.5 billion rolled out last year. According to reports by a local financial institution, as the 2009 tax revenue was healthier than initially budgeted, the budget deficit is likely to be smaller than the estimated $8.67 billion, which would have been equivalent to 3.5% of GDP. The report estimates the budget deficit to be around $6.8 billion or 2.8% of GDP. This may spur the government to be bolder than most analysts expect as they look to finance some of the ESC recommendations and pave the way for economic recovery. If last year's budget focused on saving businesses and jobs, this year's is likely to emphasize on strengthening the labour force and enterprises.
2. Economic Recovery
It is natural that, as we exit from one of the largest and widespread recessions of recent times, there are nervous glances to this end. We have to give the government and its schemes, like the Jobs Credit and SRI, credit for preventing this recession from being as severe as initially expected. Nevertheless as the debt crisis unfolds in Europe, unemployment continues to be high in the US and Asian governments tighten monetary policy to curb asset and consumer inflation, we may expect to revisit this topic several times during the year. Even thought economists have predicted the economy to grow between 3-5%, it may not be as smooth a recovery as we would like.
3. Youth Olympic Games
All eyes will be on Singapore as we host the YOG. As we draw closer to the event proper, there will be widespread buzz and excitement among Singaporeans. Like always though, there will be some who stand to gain less than others so expect to see less complementary letters in the Forum pages scattered among the bouquets. More importantly though, after the success of hosting APEC in 2009, this will be another to chance for us to prove that Singapore can deliver on varied platforms. This will be crucial if we are looking to host even bigger events in the future.
4. World Cup 2010
With the greatest sporting event in the world (you can tell I am biased here) less than 4 months away, there is still no clear indication if Singaporeans are going to be able to watch it from the comfort of our homes. Going against all norms of micro-economics, this is perhaps one of those few examples when competition has actually compromised consumer welfare instead of enhancing it. If either of the parties involved fails to deliver, there will be scores of angry football fans here, lots of finger pointing and plenty of filled up hotels in JB and Bintan. It will be interesting to see who takes advantage of this desperate situation and steps in to resolve it. Instant heroic status beckons.
5. Integrated Resorts
Well, if Singaporeans don't have the World Cup, they can take heart that there are alternative forms of entertainment. While the casino at Resorts World has just opened, there is still lots more to be launched across both IRs during the year. There will be plenty of attention on how the economic gains are balanced against the moral implications as we progress and how successful it is in increasing visitor arrivals into Singapore.
6. Social Cohesion
We spent a huge chunk of 2009 discussing various social issues and 2010 has started on the same note. Whether it is racial tolerance and respect, integration of foreigners or civil-society relations, these issues have gained in prominence over the course of the past year. While some may celebrate this as a sign of maturity of Singaporeans in addressing such issues, I am certain that many segments of the community is less enthusiastic that these topics have emerged. Recent incidences of teenage boys posting insensitive remarks online or of religious leaders displaying signs of racial intolerance, coupled with continued tension across the Causeway, is a sign that we may not have seen the last of racial intolerance bear its ugly head. It is affirmative action that senior political leaders have come out to address the situation but there will need to be more concrete steps taken to prevent the problem from exarcebating. Strangely enough, the racial prejudice cases have actually over shadowed the foreigner integration issue recently. However, the government has also helped to alleviate concern by acknowledging the problem exists, by introducing recent changes in healthcare, education and housing policies in favour of citizens and by understanding that the flow of foreigners needs to be calibrated.
7. Formula One
Many argue that the novelty of the F1 races will wear off by this year and so it may not be as profitable and popular. However, if last year was a reflection of what is to come, then I would say that Singapore will only be more ready this year to welcome back the Night Race into town. Fringe events, such as the F1 Rocks concert, were successful this year and so expect many more this time around. This was one of the reasons the F1 was brought in; to create an ecosystem of supporting businesses that will leverage on the F1's existence here. Expect another festive time but yet more complains on disrupted businesses and traffic congestion.
8. General Elections
Whether or not it will happen this year is anyone's guess really. The excitement has already set-in since last year with the rumour mills working overtime on several accounts. Even before the elections are announced, there is already plenty to look out for.
Firstly, with the recent cooling-off period introduced, there may be greater focus on online campaign strategies this time around; an area where the incumbent has to develop greater expertise in. Then, there is the Electoral Reform Bill to be passed, which may see smaller GRCs and more SMCs. Lastly, it remains to be seen on who the parties involved will be roping in to contest their electoral battles with the opposition parties recently generating some hype on this topic. Also, look out for the announcement of the electoral boundary review committee who will decide on the constituency lines and size.
9. Tourism 2010
Recent reports have shown that tourism figures declined for 2009 so it will be interesting to note the steps STB takes to improve on this trend, especially since tourism contributes to more than 5 percent of GDP. STB has already taken steps in the right direction by implementing a public ideas portal, the Tourism Compass 2020, to better its blueprint targets, to achieve $30 billion in tourism receipts and 17 million visitor arrivals to Singapore, by 2015. The new plans may unveil some exciting new attractions to enhance our growing tourism landscape.
10. Productivity
The P word comes back to our dictionary after being inconspiciously absent for some years. Productivity will be key to long-term competitiveness but expect some displacement if efficiency makes a larger headcount redundant. However, this may not be significant because by the time productivity efforts begin to show results, a calibrated foreign worker intake, along with economic expansion, will free more jobs in the economy. The ESC has already identified this as a major are of concern and with PM setting 2-3 percent increases as a benchmark, the Tripartite will now be responsible for driving this forward.
1. Budget 2010
The Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) has already announced its recommendations, which are a prelude to Budget 2010 announced by the Minister of Finance on 22nd Feb. It remains to be seen how bullish the government will be in rolling out incentives this year. Analysts have predicted that we are unlikely to see figures close to the $20.5 billion rolled out last year. According to reports by a local financial institution, as the 2009 tax revenue was healthier than initially budgeted, the budget deficit is likely to be smaller than the estimated $8.67 billion, which would have been equivalent to 3.5% of GDP. The report estimates the budget deficit to be around $6.8 billion or 2.8% of GDP. This may spur the government to be bolder than most analysts expect as they look to finance some of the ESC recommendations and pave the way for economic recovery. If last year's budget focused on saving businesses and jobs, this year's is likely to emphasize on strengthening the labour force and enterprises.
2. Economic Recovery
It is natural that, as we exit from one of the largest and widespread recessions of recent times, there are nervous glances to this end. We have to give the government and its schemes, like the Jobs Credit and SRI, credit for preventing this recession from being as severe as initially expected. Nevertheless as the debt crisis unfolds in Europe, unemployment continues to be high in the US and Asian governments tighten monetary policy to curb asset and consumer inflation, we may expect to revisit this topic several times during the year. Even thought economists have predicted the economy to grow between 3-5%, it may not be as smooth a recovery as we would like.
3. Youth Olympic Games
All eyes will be on Singapore as we host the YOG. As we draw closer to the event proper, there will be widespread buzz and excitement among Singaporeans. Like always though, there will be some who stand to gain less than others so expect to see less complementary letters in the Forum pages scattered among the bouquets. More importantly though, after the success of hosting APEC in 2009, this will be another to chance for us to prove that Singapore can deliver on varied platforms. This will be crucial if we are looking to host even bigger events in the future.
4. World Cup 2010
With the greatest sporting event in the world (you can tell I am biased here) less than 4 months away, there is still no clear indication if Singaporeans are going to be able to watch it from the comfort of our homes. Going against all norms of micro-economics, this is perhaps one of those few examples when competition has actually compromised consumer welfare instead of enhancing it. If either of the parties involved fails to deliver, there will be scores of angry football fans here, lots of finger pointing and plenty of filled up hotels in JB and Bintan. It will be interesting to see who takes advantage of this desperate situation and steps in to resolve it. Instant heroic status beckons.
5. Integrated Resorts
Well, if Singaporeans don't have the World Cup, they can take heart that there are alternative forms of entertainment. While the casino at Resorts World has just opened, there is still lots more to be launched across both IRs during the year. There will be plenty of attention on how the economic gains are balanced against the moral implications as we progress and how successful it is in increasing visitor arrivals into Singapore.
6. Social Cohesion
We spent a huge chunk of 2009 discussing various social issues and 2010 has started on the same note. Whether it is racial tolerance and respect, integration of foreigners or civil-society relations, these issues have gained in prominence over the course of the past year. While some may celebrate this as a sign of maturity of Singaporeans in addressing such issues, I am certain that many segments of the community is less enthusiastic that these topics have emerged. Recent incidences of teenage boys posting insensitive remarks online or of religious leaders displaying signs of racial intolerance, coupled with continued tension across the Causeway, is a sign that we may not have seen the last of racial intolerance bear its ugly head. It is affirmative action that senior political leaders have come out to address the situation but there will need to be more concrete steps taken to prevent the problem from exarcebating. Strangely enough, the racial prejudice cases have actually over shadowed the foreigner integration issue recently. However, the government has also helped to alleviate concern by acknowledging the problem exists, by introducing recent changes in healthcare, education and housing policies in favour of citizens and by understanding that the flow of foreigners needs to be calibrated.
7. Formula One
Many argue that the novelty of the F1 races will wear off by this year and so it may not be as profitable and popular. However, if last year was a reflection of what is to come, then I would say that Singapore will only be more ready this year to welcome back the Night Race into town. Fringe events, such as the F1 Rocks concert, were successful this year and so expect many more this time around. This was one of the reasons the F1 was brought in; to create an ecosystem of supporting businesses that will leverage on the F1's existence here. Expect another festive time but yet more complains on disrupted businesses and traffic congestion.
8. General Elections
Whether or not it will happen this year is anyone's guess really. The excitement has already set-in since last year with the rumour mills working overtime on several accounts. Even before the elections are announced, there is already plenty to look out for.
Firstly, with the recent cooling-off period introduced, there may be greater focus on online campaign strategies this time around; an area where the incumbent has to develop greater expertise in. Then, there is the Electoral Reform Bill to be passed, which may see smaller GRCs and more SMCs. Lastly, it remains to be seen on who the parties involved will be roping in to contest their electoral battles with the opposition parties recently generating some hype on this topic. Also, look out for the announcement of the electoral boundary review committee who will decide on the constituency lines and size.
9. Tourism 2010
Recent reports have shown that tourism figures declined for 2009 so it will be interesting to note the steps STB takes to improve on this trend, especially since tourism contributes to more than 5 percent of GDP. STB has already taken steps in the right direction by implementing a public ideas portal, the Tourism Compass 2020, to better its blueprint targets, to achieve $30 billion in tourism receipts and 17 million visitor arrivals to Singapore, by 2015. The new plans may unveil some exciting new attractions to enhance our growing tourism landscape.
10. Productivity
The P word comes back to our dictionary after being inconspiciously absent for some years. Productivity will be key to long-term competitiveness but expect some displacement if efficiency makes a larger headcount redundant. However, this may not be significant because by the time productivity efforts begin to show results, a calibrated foreign worker intake, along with economic expansion, will free more jobs in the economy. The ESC has already identified this as a major are of concern and with PM setting 2-3 percent increases as a benchmark, the Tripartite will now be responsible for driving this forward.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Singapore's Most Influential News Story of 2009 - Poll Results
I ran this little poll here on Insights-Asia, just to get a sense of which of these news stories created the largest impact on readers in Singapore. In fact, when I was compiling the big news stories of 2009, the list was endless as there were many more that created waves. However, I wanted a good balance between economic, social and political stories and hence, my list.
There is little surprise that voters chose the Resilience Package, Economic Recession and Its Woes as the most influential news story of 2009, given that it was topic that was on most Singaporeans' minds. What is perhaps more surprising though is its margin of victory as the second placed news story lost by only 1 vote (2%)! It is the Integration of Foreign Expats which came close to topping it and few can deny that this was one of the most discussed issues in Singapore last year and is still being carried forward until now.
The ranking of the other stories, APEC Singapore, Multiracialism in Singapore and the Singapore Youth Olympic Games, did not score as highly as the other two and I guess this may give a slight indication of what influences Singaporeans most. Having said that, the sample size was a challenge and I hope to get more respondents in the future so that the voting results can be more reflective of the general population.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Challenges Facing Singapore's Economy (Part 4) - Implications of Rising Costs on Businesses
In my previous post, I explained how Singapore has moved rapidly up the value chain based on international comparisons of the Manufacturing Value-Added (MVA) data. Many may look at this as less of a problem and more of a positive sign as having a higher MVA indicates progression in manufacturing activity. Critics may also argue that since we are being presented with these opportunities to upgrade, there is no reason to turn them away and should instead embrace them.
The point is that moving up the value-chain too quickly has forced business costs in Singapore to rise rapidly. This is reflected by higher unit business costs here as unit labour costs in Singapore increased by 22.8 percent in 2007 to 2008. This is enormous when compared to corresponding figures of 0.4 percent and 2.8 percent in Japan and US respectively, not to mention the drop in Korea’s unit labour costs by 0.3 percent.
Moreover, the rising labour costs in Singapore are not directly a result of higher productivity. Comparing the productivity growth rates released by the International Labour Organization, Singapore’s productivity increased by 3.7 percent from 1980 to 2002, thus showing that its productive efficiency is increasing at a slower rate than its MVA growth as well as its rising business costs. We can conclude from this that Singapore’s rapid rate of rise up the manufacturing value chain has contributed to higher unit labour costs here, and consequently higher business costs, which have not been compensated by a substantial increase in productivity. If we are to continue on this trend of moving up the value chain quickly, then we should at least ensure that productivity gets a greater push so that higher labour costs can be substantiated for our SMEs and MNCs.
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